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SCENARIOS
The scenarios below allow you to explore the need and opportunities to accelerate transportation electrification across the U.S. based on different preset weightings for eleven different areas of focus. Explore which states rise to the top in each scenario. To create your own scenario, select any one of the preset options and move individual sliders toward the left or right to adjust the factors and subfactors.
The scenarios below allow you to explore the need and opportunities to accelerate transportation electrification across the U.S. based on different preset weightings for eleven different areas of focus. Explore which states rise to the top in each scenario. To create your own scenario, select any one of the preset options and move individual sliders toward the left or right to adjust the factors and subfactors.
Apply Selected Scenario and Revert to Balanced
Approach/All States
If, after exploring a customized scenario (adjusting sliders), you want to explore a different pre-defined scenario, be sure to click on "Apply Selected Scenario” to re-set the sliders. The scenario will return to Scenario 1 and all states selected when you select "Revert to Balanced Approach/All States"
If, after exploring a customized scenario (adjusting sliders), you want to explore a different pre-defined scenario, be sure to click on "Apply Selected Scenario” to re-set the sliders. The scenario will return to Scenario 1 and all states selected when you select "Revert to Balanced Approach/All States"
1. Balanced Approach is the
Tool's base scenario. Informed by a diverse set of
transportation electrification experts representing a wide
range of environmental, equity, labor, utility,
communications, consumer, health and philanthropic
organizations; the Balanced Approach incorporates all
eleven factors, with more emphasis on state policy
momentum and mobility and pollution inequities and
slightly lower emphasis on in-state political opportunity
and oil influence.
2. Economic Development
explores options to advance auto industry jobs and related
economic activity. It draws from seven factors,
emphasizing current and potential EV supply chain jobs,
influence on federal policy, mobility and pollution
inequities, and gives moderate weight to GHG emissions, EV
market potential, influence on vehicle trends, and
corporate influence.
3. Pollution & Public Health
explores the need to significantly reduce air pollution
and improve public health. Particular emphasis is placed
on mobility and pollution inequities (especially the
underlying health and pollution sub-factors) and GHG
emissions, with some emphasis on factors related to
freight trucks and buses because they have significant
impact on PM2.5 air pollution and related health impacts.
The scenario also places a moderate emphasis on vehicle
market trends and EV market potential because higher EV
uptake improves air quality and health, plus utility
engagement and federal policy influence (representing the
ability to implement relevant policies for communities and
air quality).
4. Systemic Inequities
builds on the Pollution & Public Health scenario and
priorities (see above), but also brings in jobs to
consider a just transition and good jobs to improve
economic mobility in underserved communities. The scenario
reflects places where action is critical to achieve
change, such as federal equity champions and federal
policy influence. The scenario incorporates seven factors,
with heavy emphasis on mobility and pollution inequities,
federal influence (including champions such as those
supporting equity-related legislation), an increase in
jobs (equitable transition), utility interest (investment
in underserved communities), and overall emissions.
5. Federal Policy Influence
explores the states with greater opportunity to shape
federal clean transportation policy. It emphasizes
congressional leadership, jobs and economics, mobility and
pollution inequities, alongside select sub-factors within
state policy momentum and in-state political opportunity.
6. Light Duty (Car/SUV) Focus
highlights opportunities specifically to advance
electrification of passenger cars, SUVs and light trucks.
The Scenario uses all eleven factors but the subfactors
related to medium- and heavy-duty trucks and buses are
excluded.
7. Freight Focus explores
opportunities specifically to advance electrification of
freight trucks. Higher priority is placed on GHG
reductions and mobility and pollution inequities because
freight trucks (often diesel) emit both CO2 and other
emissions such as PM2.5 that contribute to health impacts.
It includes all eleven factors but subfactors related to
light-duty vehicles and buses are excluded. Comparted to
the Bus Focus scenario, EV jobs are elevated, interest by
large companies and corporate commitments are elevated.
8. Bus Focus explores
opportunities specifically to advance electrification of
buses. Higher priority is placed on GHG reductions and
mobility and pollution inequities because diesel buses
emit both CO2 and other emissions such as PM2.5 that
contribute to health impacts. It includes all eleven
factors but subfactors related to light-duty vehicles and
freight trucks are excluded. Compared to the Freight Focus
scenario, higher weight is put on mobility and pollution
inequities and federal policy influence, interest by
cities is elevated (as city buses can be electrified most
quickly) and Electrify America funding is included.
9. Freight & Bus Focus
explores opportunities to advance the electrification when
focusing on freight trucks and buses (all medium- and
heavy-duty vehicles). It combines the Bus Focus and
Freight Focus scenarios, and includes all 11 factors.
Highly rated factors are GHG reductions, EV supply chain
jobs, mobility and pollution inequities, federal
influence, policy momentum, and EV market potential.
Moderate weights are put on utility engagement, corporate
influence, political opportunity. Low weights are put on
vehicle market trends influence and oil influence. It
excludes subfactors related to light-duty vehicles.
ONE-FACTOR SCENARIOS
Explore scenarios one factor at a time: "I isolated this one factor to explore..."
Explore scenarios one factor at a time: "I isolated this one factor to explore..."
Policy Momentum: How the
current policy environment and interest affects the
potential for new electrification policies or successful
implementation of current policies.
Political Opportunity: How
the in-state political climate affects vehicle
electrification policy.
Federal Policy Influence:
How much the state plays a role in influencing federal
legislative and administrative transportation policy.
Transport GHG Emissions:
How big the potential emissions reductions are from
vehicle electrification, plus fleets that can quickly
transition to EVs.
EV Market Potential: How
large of a market could rapidly transition to EVs,
considering the size of the vehicle market, EV model
availability, incentives, charging infrastructure, and
presence of early- and mid- adopters.
Vehicle Market Trends Influence:
How influential the state's market is in setting trends
and influencing vehicle preferences in the region or
nationwide.
EV Supply Chain Jobs:
Employment and economic benefits of electrification (and
associated political support) that the state is already
reaping from existing EV supply chain and manufacturing
presence and the potential to realize new vehicle-related
jobs from transportation electrification.
Utility Engagement:
Electric utilities' commitments to transportation
electrification and climate abatement (represented by
renewable portfolio or targets), as utilities can be
partners in supporting and expending political capital on
electrification.
Corporate Influence: The
potential to harness corporate influence to drive policy
in the state or directly increase EV deployment
considering concentration of major corporations in the
state, major movers of goods, and corporate commitments to
electrification.
Mobility & Pollution Inequities:
Severity of systemic mobility and pollution inequities in
state and level of commitment to programs, policies or
political momentum to address inequities considering
policy champions, existing programs to address inequities
and utility and Public Utility Commission actions.
Oil Influence: How
influential the state's oil industry is in opposing
electrification policy.
More ▼
EV Momentum: Choose whether
to consider EV market momentum as rationale to prioritize a
state. When EV Momentum is ON, you are able to see which
states rise to the top if you assume that states' past
success on vehicle electrification correlates with higher
likelihood of future success and greater ambition. The tool
does this by including past policy wins, commitments, and EV
market achievements in the states' scores, and results in
higher ranking for those states with greater existing
vehicle electrification momentum. When EV Momentum is OFF,
the tool ignores past policy wins and market achievements,
allowing you to focus on other issues of interest and
consider how states stack up with a clean slate.
** means EV momentum OFF will remove this factor (* means it removes some sub-factors).
** means EV momentum OFF will remove this factor (* means it removes some sub-factors).
Oil Opposition:
Choose whether to consider oil opposition as rationale to
prioritize a state or avoid a state. When this factor is set
to DIRECT, the tool prioritizes states where oil opposition
is more influential. When this factor is set to REVERSE, the
tool ranks highly states with less influential oil
opposition.
+ denotes factors and sub factors that are affected by the Oil Opposition toggle. When set to DIRECT, + factors with high scores raise a state's overall score. When set to REVERSE, + factors with high scores lower a state's score.
+ denotes factors and sub factors that are affected by the Oil Opposition toggle. When set to DIRECT, + factors with high scores raise a state's overall score. When set to REVERSE, + factors with high scores lower a state's score.
Adjust Factor Weights
More ▼
Moving the slider to the right/high indicates higher relative
importance of the factor (or sub-factor).
** means EV momentum OFF will remove this factor (* means it removes some sub-factors).
+ denotes factors and sub factors that are affected by the Oil Opposition toggle. When set to DIRECT, + factors with high scores raise a state's overall score. When set to REVERSE, + factors with high scores lower a state's score.
We refer to light duty vehicles as cars and SUVs, and medium- and heavy-duty trucks as trucks.
** means EV momentum OFF will remove this factor (* means it removes some sub-factors).
+ denotes factors and sub factors that are affected by the Oil Opposition toggle. When set to DIRECT, + factors with high scores raise a state's overall score. When set to REVERSE, + factors with high scores lower a state's score.
We refer to light duty vehicles as cars and SUVs, and medium- and heavy-duty trucks as trucks.
Policy Momentum**: How the
current policy environment and interest affects the
potential for new electrification policies or successful
implementation of current policies.
Political Opportunity: How
the in-state political climate affects vehicle
electrification policy.
Federal Policy Influence: How
much the state plays a role in influencing federal
legislative and administrative transportation policy.
Transport GHG Emissions: How
big the potential emissions reductions are from vehicle
electrification, plus fleets that can quickly transition to
EVs.
EV Market Potential*: How
large of a market could rapidly transition to EVs,
considering the size of the vehicle market, EV model
availability, incentives, charging infrastructure, and
presence of early- and mid- adopters.
Vehicle Market Trends Influence:
How influential the state's market is in setting trends and
influencing vehicle preferences in the region or nationwide.
EV Supply Chain Jobs:
Employment and economic benefits of electrification (and
associated political support) that the state is already
reaping from existing EV supply chain and manufacturing
presence and the potential to realize new vehicle-related
jobs from transportation electrification.
Utility Engagement*: Electric
utilities' commitments to transportation electrification and
climate abatement (represented by renewable portfolio or
targets), as utilities can be partners in supporting and
expending political capital on electrification.
Corporate Influence*: The
potential to harness corporate influence to drive policy in
the state or directly increase EV deployment considering
concentration of major corporations in the state, major
movers of goods, and corporate commitments to
electrification.
Mobility & Pollution Inequities*:
Severity of systemic mobility and pollution inequities in
state and level of commitment to programs, policies or
political momentum to address inequities considering policy
champions, existing programs to address inequities and
utility and Public Utility Commission actions.
Oil Influence: How
influential the state's oil industry is in opposing
electrification policy.
Policy Momentum
More ▼
Policy Momentum**: How the
current policy environment and interest affects the
potential for new electrification policies or successful
implementation of current policies.
ZEV state or pursuing ZEV*:
The presence of Section 177 ZEV policy in the state,
current pursuit of such policy, or indication of interest.
Clean truck policy or interest*:
The passage of Advanced Clean Trucks policy, multi-state
truck MOU participation, or publicly stated intent to
pursue ACT.
EV supportive policies*:
The overall state support for transport electrification
based on the number of EV policies.
EV targets*: States that
have set light duty or heavy duty targets and goals, score
based on the level of ambition and speed for market
adoption.
EV roadmap*: States that
have established EV or EV charging roadmaps or plans for
vehicle electrification transition.
Public EV fleet funding*:
The amount of state funding allocated to electric vehicle
public fleets and charging infrastructure, including
funding from the Volkswagen settlement.
EV purchase collaborative*:
Number of electric vehicles cities have committed to buy
through participation in EV purchasing collaboratives.
City-level commitments*:
Overall climate and clean energy commitments by cities.
Transportation focused initiatives are scored higher than
other climate programs. Includes Green and Healthy
Streets, American Cities Climate Challenge, Carbon Neutral
Cities, Smart City Challenge, and Climate Mayors.
Transportation Climate Initiative*:
Participation in the Transportation Climate Initiative
process. Score based on a state’s level of advancement
through the process.
Low
High
Political Opportunity
More ▼
Political Opportunity: How
the in-state political climate affects vehicle
electrification policy.
Clean transport political favorability:
How favorable state governor, legislature, agencies,
courts, and Public Utility Commission are toward vehicle
electrification.
Auto industry influence:
Auto industry's influence on state politics as measured by
the percentage of tax revenue generated through auto
industry activities including manufacturing, selling, and
maintenance.
Oil import reduction potential:
The opportunity to reduce oil imports and keep energy
expenditures inside the state economy, as measured by the
quantity of net oil imports.
Low
High
Federal Policy Influence
More ▼
Federal Policy Influence:
How much the state plays a role in influencing federal
legislative and administrative transportation policy.
State leadership in Congress:
Congressional delegation represented in the highest levels
of leadership and influence in Congress.
Congressional committees:
Congressional delegation represented in moderate levels of
leadership in Congress, namely committee leadership or
membership among 27 key committees critical to clean
transportation policy.
Auto industry Congressional influence:
Auto industry campaign contributions to Congressional
delegation, as proxy for how a supportive auto industry
might influence federal transportation policy. Includes
industry associations and individual manufacturers,
dealers, and other auto industry.
Auto industry union jobs:
The number of auto union jobs, as a proxy for that state's
support in Congress for union jobs.
Oil industry political influence+:
Oil industry's campaign contributions to Congressional
delegation, including oil companies and political action
committees.
Swing state: Whether a
state is considered a swing state for upcoming federal
elections.
Congress transport votes:
Members of Congressional delegation have supported recent
federal clean transportation bills, related environment or
transportation bills, or Senate confirmation of pro-clean
transportation appointees.
Congress climate votes:
Members of Congressional delegation have supported recent
federal climate legislation or Senate confirmations of
pro-climate appointees.
Pro-climate cities in red states:
GOP leaning states (as determined by party preference and
public polling) with pro-climate cities, using scores for
cities participating in EV Purchase Collaboratives and
Cities with Climate Commitments.
Low
High
Transport GHG Emissions
More ▼
Transport GHG Emissions:
How big the potential emissions reductions are from
vehicle electrification, plus fleets that can quickly
transition to EVs.
Transport GHG emissions:
Transportation sector CO2 emissions.
Heavy-duty GHG emissions:
Medium- and heavy-duty on-road transportation sector
emissions, as represented by the quantity and distance of
freight moved annually.
Transport GHG emissions density:
The level of transportation sector CO2 emissions weighted
by size of a state, in order to better highlight
geographically small states with high levels of emissions.
Private bus fleets: The
number of buses in the private bus fleet, which represents
nearly 60% of buses on the road, representing potential
emissions reductions from private bus fleets.
Public cars/SUV & truck fleets:
The number of cars and trucks in public fleets, as a proxy
for potential emissions reductions from public fleets.
Public transit bus fleets:
The number of buses in public transit fleets, which
represent about 40% of buses on the road, as proxy for
potential emissions reductions from public transit.
Low
High
EV Market Potential
More ▼
EV Market Potential*: How
large of a market could rapidly transition to EVs,
considering the size of the vehicle market, EV model
availability, incentives, charging infrastructure, and
presence of early- and mid- adopters.
Car/SUV market: Number of
vehicles registered, as proxy for the light-duty market
potential. Light-duty vehicles (cars, SUVs, light-trucks)
represent about 91% of the total number of vehicles
registered.
Truck market: Number of
registered trucks (medium- & heavy-duty), which represents
the truck market potential. Includes Class 3b & higher
(above 10,000 lbs), including tractor trucks.
Early & mid adopters:
Demographics that would suggest near-term higher adoption
rates, based on the number of people who own detached
houses and have household incomes $75,000 and higher (this
proxy is short-term and based on studies of housing and
income demographics of EV buyers to-date).
EV car sales*: EV car sales
in the previous year.
EV car sales/person*:
EV car sales in the previous year, relative to the state's
population.
# car EV models*:
Number of car/SUV models available.
# truck EV models*: As a
proxy for truck models (medium/heavy duty) available, and
to represent level of accessibility of trucks and the
near-term market potential, score derived from
medium/heavy duty policy passage.
Incentives - cars*:
Amount of financial incentive available for car/SUV
purchase.
Incentives - trucks*:
Number of heavy duty truck incentives available.
Public charging*: Number of
Level 2 and DC fast chargers publicly available.
Public charging/person*:
Number of Level 2 and DC fast chargers publicly available
per person; this offers another measure of availability of
charging, especially in highly populated areas.
Low
High
Vehicle Market Trends Influence
More ▼
Vehicle Market Trends Influence:
How influential the state's market is in setting trends
and influencing vehicle preferences in the region or
nationwide.
Truck manufacturing: Number
of heavy-duty vehicle assembly and supplier facilities, as
proxy for heavy duty vehicle industry presence and
influence.
Car/SUV manufacturing:
Number of light-duty vehicle assembly and supplier
facilities in the state, as proxy for light-duty vehicle
industry presence and influence.
Truck sales: Gross sales of
trucks (Class 4+) vehicles by truck dealerships, as proxy
for influential heavy-duty markets.
Vehicle ownership rate:
Presence of strong car culture and influence, as indicated
by the number of vehicles owned per person.
Cities - high vehicle ownership:
Presence of major metro areas with strong car culture and
influence, as indicated by the average number of vehicles
per household.
Auto shows: Local and
regional influence of auto shows, as indicated by major US
auto show locations.
Upmarket brand presence:
Number of upmarket brand store sites (Whole Foods,
Lululemon, Urban Outfitters, Apple), as proxy for
locations that could also be influential near-term for EV
market trendsetting. This proxy is short-term only and
based on income demographics of early EV buyers.
Low
High
EV Supply Chain Jobs
More ▼
EV Supply Chain Jobs:
Employment and economic benefits of electrification (and
associated political support) that the state is already
reaping from existing EV supply chain and manufacturing
presence and the potential to realize new vehicle-related
jobs from transportation electrification.
Auto workforce % of state jobs:
Total EV and non-EV auto industry workforce as a
percentage of total state jobs, as proxy for potential EV
jobs.
Car manufacturing jobs:
Current number of people employed by light-duty vehicle
(EV and non-EV) and charging infrastructure manufacturers
and suppliers.
Truck manufacturing jobs:
Current number of people employed by light-duty vehicle
(EV and non-EV) and charging infrastructure manufacturers
and suppliers.
Car EV & charging mfg jobs:
Current number of people employed by light-duty electric
vehicle and charging infrastructure manufacturers and
suppliers.
Truck EV & charging mfg jobs:
Current number of people employed by heavy-duty electric
vehicle and charging infrastructure manufacturers and
suppliers.
Low
High
Utility Engagement
More ▼
Utility Engagement*:
Electric utilities' commitments to transportation
electrification and climate abatement (represented by
renewable portfolio or targets), as utilities can be
partners in supporting and expending political capital on
electrification
Utility EV policy*: Number
of utility electrification policies, as proxy for level of
utility engagement to-date.
Utility EV investment:
Level of investment proposed or approved, as proxy for the
near-term utility engagement in vehicle electrification.
Renewable energy goals*:
State clean power portfolio (or Renewable Portfolio
Standard) percentage goal, as proxy for presence of
utilities that must engage on renewable energy now and
therefore are more likely to also engage on
electrification either through interest or regulation.
Renewable energy mix today:
Current zero-emissions percentage of electricity mix, as
proxy for level of proactive behavior by utilities toward
increasing their renewable energy mix and potential
bandwidth (political will and capacity) to turn attention
to transportation electrification.
Low
High
Corporate Influence
More ▼
Corporate Influence*: The
potential to harness corporate influence to drive policy
in the state or directly increase EV deployment
considering concentration of major corporations in the
state, major movers of goods, and corporate commitments to
electrification.
Fortune 1000 headquarters:
Where Fortunate 1000 companies are headquartered, as proxy
for where corporations are well positioned to accelerate
state or federal electrification policy.
US & foreign auto maker headquarters:
Where US and foreign auto manufacturers are headquartered,
as proxy for where automakers support auto-industry
supportive electrification policies.
Corporate commitments*:
Number of corporate sites with commitments to EVs,
including workplace charging.
Freight value $: Economic
value of freight moving through the state, as proxy for
level of political influence by shipping, logistics,
warehousing and trucking industries.
Electrify America & VW settlement $*:
Level of investment by Electrify America and through VW
settlement funding.
Low
High
Mobility & Pollution Inequities
More ▼
Mobility & Pollution Inequities*:
Severity of systemic mobility and pollution inequities in
state and level of commitment to programs, policies or
political momentum to address inequities considering
policy champions, existing programs to address inequities
and utility and Public Utility Commission actions.
Transport equity champions:
The number of members of congress sponsoring or leading on
transportation equity or climate justice policy.
Utilities equity invest*:
Level of investment proposed by utilities in underserved
communities, as proxy for level of readiness and interest
by utilities to support equitable clean mobility.
Govt programs focus equity:
Whether local and regional governments are in the Alliance
for Racial Equity, as proxy for the level of readiness of
government to pursue supportive equitable mobility policy.
% poverty: Percentage of
people living below 185% of the poverty line, as proxy for
prevalence of lower income communities that are
disproportionately impacted by transportation pollution
and inequitable access to clean transportation.
% communities of color:
Percentage of people of color or Latinx, as proxy for
prevalence of communities that experience systemic racism,
disproportionate impacts of transportation pollution, and
inequitable access to clean transportation.
People in air quality non-attainment:
Number of people living in air quality non-attainment
areas.
Asthma: Number of adults
with asthma, as proxy for the number of people exposed to
poor air quality from transportation sector pollution.
Deaths from transport pollution:
Deaths attributed to transportation pollution by state.
Goods movement hubs: Daily
number of trucks traveling through communities neighboring
freight hubs.
Ports $: The economic
activity generated at ports, as proxy for the economic and
political importance of ports to the nearby communities
and state.
School bus emissions:
Number of children transported by school bus among the
largest 120 school districts in the country.
Low
High
Oil Influence
More ▼
Oil Influence: How
influential the state's oil industry is in opposing
electrification policy.
Oil production+: Oil
production, as proxy for oil producer presence and
influence. With the oil opposition toggle set to DIRECT,
states with high levels of oil production rate highly.
Oil refining+: Oil refining
capacity, as proxy for level of oil industry presence and
influence. With the oil opposition toggle set to DIRECT,
states with high levels of oil refining capacity rate
highly.
EV fees+: Size of current
registration fees applied only to electric vehicles or
plug-in hybrid vehicles, as proxy for the level of
influence by opposition groups. With the oil opposition
toggle ON, states with high EV fees rate highly.
Oil opposition group budget+:
Annual budgets of oil-related or oil-funded organizations.
With the oil opposition toggle set to DIRECT, states with
higher opposition budgets rate more highly.
Oil opposition social media+:
Number of social media followers of major oil-related
entities. With the oil opposition toggle set to DIRECT,
states with more oil opposition followers rate more
highly.
Low
High
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Score
Individual Factors
More ▼
State Sorting:
Choose how to sort individual factor results - by the
State Summary order or individually. When State Sorting is
set to "STATE SUMMARY", the charts for individual factors
display states in the same order as the overall State
Results chart. When Sort by State Results is set to
"INDIVIDUAL FACTORS", each individual factor chart
displays states in descending order for that individual
factor. The "INDIVIDUAL FACTOR" setting allows you to
isolate a group of highly ranked states for an individual
factor, whereas you would use the "STATE SUMMARY" position
to see how the overall top ranked states score for
individual factors.
More ▼
Policy Momentum**: How the
current policy environment and interest affects the
potential for new electrification policies or successful
implementation of current policies.
ZEV state or pursuing ZEV*:
The presence of Section 177 ZEV policy in the state,
current pursuit of such policy, or indication of interest.
Clean truck policy or interest*:
The passage of Advanced Clean Trucks policy, multi-state
truck MOU participation, or publicly stated intent to
pursue ACT.
EV supportive policies*:
The overall state support for transport electrification
based on the number of EV policies.
EV targets*: States that
have set light duty or heavy duty targets and goals, score
based on the level of ambition and speed for market
adoption.
EV roadmap*: States that
have established EV or EV charging roadmaps or plans for
vehicle electrification transition.
Public EV fleet funding*:
The amount of state funding allocated to electric vehicle
public fleets and charging infrastructure, including
funding from the Volkswagen settlement.
EV purchase collaborative*:
Number of electric vehicles cities have committed to buy
through participation in EV purchasing collaboratives.
City-level commitments*:
Overall climate and clean energy commitments by cities.
Transportation focused initiatives are scored higher than
other climate programs. Includes Green and Healthy
Streets, American Cities Climate Challenge, Carbon Neutral
Cities, Smart City Challenge, and Climate Mayors.
Transportation Climate Initiative*:
Participation in the Transportation Climate Initiative
process. Score based on a state’s level of advancement
through the process.
More ▼
Political Opportunity: How
the in-state political climate affects vehicle
electrification policy.
Clean transport political favorability:
How favorable state governor, legislature, agencies,
courts, and Public Utility Commission are toward vehicle
electrification.
Auto industry influence:
Auto industry's influence on state politics as measured by
the percentage of tax revenue generated through auto
industry activities including manufacturing, selling, and
maintenance.
Oil import reduction potential:
The opportunity to reduce oil imports and keep energy
expenditures inside the state economy, as measured by the
quantity of net oil imports.
More ▼
Federal Policy Influence:
How much the state plays a role in influencing federal
legislative and administrative transportation policy.
State leadership in Congress:
Congressional delegation represented in the highest levels
of leadership and influence in Congress.
Congressional committees:
Congressional delegation represented in moderate levels of
leadership in Congress, namely committee leadership or
membership among 27 key committees critical to clean
transportation policy.
Auto industry Congressional influence:
Auto industry campaign contributions to Congressional
delegation, as proxy for how a supportive auto industry
might influence federal transportation policy. Includes
industry associations and individual manufacturers,
dealers, and other auto industry.
Auto industry union jobs:
The number of auto union jobs, as a proxy for that state's
support in Congress for union jobs.
Oil industry political influence+:
Oil industry's campaign contributions to Congressional
delegation, including oil companies and political action
committees.
Swing state: Whether a
state is considered a swing state for federal elections.
Congress transport votes:
Members of Congressional delegation have supported recent
federal clean transportation bills, related environment or
transportation bills, or Senate confirmation of pro-clean
transportation appointees.
Congress climate votes:
Members of Congressional delegation have supported recent
federal climate legislation or Senate confirmations of
pro-climate appointees.
Pro-climate cities in red states:
GOP leaning states (as determined by party preference and
public polling) with pro-climate cities, using scores for
cities participating in EV Purchase Collaboratives and
Cities with Climate Commitments.
More ▼
Transport GHG Emissions:
How big the potential emissions reductions are from
vehicle electrification, plus fleets that can quickly
transition to EVs.
Transport GHG emissions:
Transportation sector CO2 emissions.
Heavy-duty GHG emissions:
Medium- and heavy-duty on-road transportation sector
emissions, as represented by the quantity and distance of
freight moved annually.
Transport GHG emissions density:
The level of transportation sector CO2 emissions weighted
by size of a state, in order to better highlight
geographically small states with high levels of emissions.
Private bus fleets: The
number of buses in the private bus fleet, which represents
nearly 60% of buses on the road, representing potential
emissions reductions from private bus fleets.
Public cars/SUV & truck fleets:
The number of cars and trucks in public fleets, as a proxy
for potential emissions reductions from public fleets.
Public transit bus fleets:
The number of buses in public transit fleets, which
represent about 40% of buses on the road, as proxy for
potential emissions reductions from public transit.
More ▼
EV Market Potential*: How
large of a market could rapidly transition to EVs,
considering the size of the vehicle market, EV model
availability, incentives, charging infrastructure, and
presence of early- and mid- adopters.
Car/SUV market: Number of
vehicles registered, as proxy for the light-duty market
potential. Light-duty vehicles (cars, SUVs, light-trucks)
represent about 91% of the total number of vehicles
registered.
Truck market: Number of
registered trucks (medium- & heavy-duty), which represents
the truck market potential. Includes Class 3b & higher
(above 10,000 lbs), including tractor trucks.
Early & mid adopters:
Demographics that would suggest near-term higher adoption
rates, based on the number of people who own detached
houses and have household incomes $75,000 and higher (this
proxy is short-term and based on studies of housing and
income demographics of EV buyers to-date).
EV car sales*: EV car sales
in the previous year.
EV car sales/person*:
EV car sales in the previous year, relative to the state's
population.
# car EV models*:
Number of car/SUV models available.
# truck EV models*: As a
proxy for truck models (medium/heavy duty) available, and
to represent level of accessibility of trucks and the
near-term market potential, score derived from
medium/heavy duty policy passage.
Incentives - cars*:
Amount of financial incentive available for car/SUV
purchase.
Incentives - trucks*:
Number of heavy duty truck incentives available.
Public charging*: Number of
Level 2 and DC fast chargers publicly available.
Public charging/person*:
Number of Level 2 and DC fast chargers publicly available
per person; this offers another measure of availability of
charging, especially in highly populated areas.
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Vehicle Market Trends Influence:
How influential the state's market is in setting trends
and influencing vehicle preferences in the region or
nationwide.
Truck manufacturing: Number
of heavy-duty vehicle assembly and supplier facilities, as
proxy for heavy duty vehicle industry presence and
influence.
Car/SUV manufacturing:
Number of light-duty vehicle assembly and supplier
facilities in the state, as proxy for light-duty vehicle
industry presence and influence.
Truck sales: Gross sales of
trucks (Class 4+) vehicles by truck dealerships, as proxy
for influential heavy-duty markets.
Vehicle ownership rate:
Presence of strong car culture and influence, as indicated
by the number of vehicles owned per person.
Cities - high vehicle ownership:
Presence of major metro areas with strong car culture and
influence, as indicated by the average number of vehicles
per household.
Auto shows: Local and
regional influence of auto shows, as indicated by major US
auto show locations.
Upmarket brand presence:
Number of upmarket brand store sites (Whole Foods,
Lululemon, Urban Outfitters, Apple), as proxy for
locations that could also be influential near-term for EV
market trendsetting. This proxy is short-term only and
based on income demographics of early EV buyers.
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EV Supply Chain Jobs:
Employment and economic benefits of electrification (and
associated political support) that the state is already
reaping from existing EV supply chain and manufacturing
presence and the potential to realize new vehicle-related
jobs from transportation electrification.
Auto workforce % of state jobs:
Total EV and non-EV auto industry workforce as a
percentage of total state jobs, as proxy for potential EV
jobs.
Car manufacturing jobs:
Current number of people employed by light-duty vehicle
(EV and non-EV) and charging infrastructure manufacturers
and suppliers.
Truck manufacturing jobs:
Current number of people employed by light-duty vehicle
(EV and non-EV) and charging infrastructure manufacturers
and suppliers.
Car EV & charging mfg jobs:
Current number of people employed by light-duty electric
vehicle and charging infrastructure manufacturers and
suppliers.
Truck EV & charging mfg jobs:
Current number of people employed by heavy-duty electric
vehicle and charging infrastructure manufacturers and
suppliers.
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Utility Engagement*:
Electric utilities' commitments to transportation
electrification and climate abatement (represented by
renewable portfolio or targets), as utilities can be
partners in supporting and expending political capital on
electrification
Utility EV policy*: Number
of utility electrification policies, as proxy for level of
utility engagement to-date.
Utility EV investment:
Level of investment proposed or approved, as proxy for the
near-term utility engagement in vehicle electrification.
Renewable energy goals*:
State clean power portfolio (or Renewable Portfolio
Standard) percentage goal, as proxy for presence of
utilities that must engage on renewable energy now and
therefore are more likely to also engage on
electrification either through interest or regulation.
Renewable energy mix today:
Current zero-emissions percentage of electricity mix, as
proxy for level of proactive behavior by utilities toward
increasing their renewable energy mix and potential
bandwidth (political will and capacity) to turn attention
to transportation electrification.
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Corporate Influence*: The
potential to harness corporate influence to drive policy
in the state or directly increase EV deployment
considering concentration of major corporations in the
state, major movers of goods, and corporate commitments to
electrification.
Fortune 1000 headquarters:
Where Fortunate 1000 companies are headquartered, as proxy
for where corporations are well positioned to accelerate
state or federal electrification policy.
US & foreign auto maker headquarters:
Where US and foreign auto manufacturers are headquartered,
as proxy for where automakers support auto-industry
supportive electrification policies.
Corporate commitments*:
Number of corporate sites with commitments to EVs,
including workplace charging.
Freight value $: Economic
value of freight moving through the state, as proxy for
level of political influence by shipping, logistics,
warehousing and trucking industries.
Electrify America & VW settlement $*:
Level of investment by Electrify America and through VW
settlement funding.
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Mobility & Pollution Inequities*:
Severity of systemic mobility and pollution inequities in
state and level of commitment to programs, policies or
political momentum to address inequities considering
policy champions, existing programs to address inequities
and utility and Public Utility Commission actions.
Transport equity champions:
The number of members of congress sponsoring or leading on
transportation equity or climate justice policy.
Utilities equity invest*:
Level of investment proposed by utilities in underserved
communities, as proxy for level of readiness and interest
by utilities to support equitable clean mobility.
Govt programs focus equity:
Whether local and regional governments are in the Alliance
for Racial Equity, as proxy for the level of readiness of
government to pursue supportive equitable mobility policy.
% poverty: Percentage of
people living below 185% of the poverty line, as proxy for
prevalence of lower income communities that are
disproportionately impacted by transportation pollution
and inequitable access to clean transportation.
% communities of color:
Percentage of people of color or Latinx, as proxy for
prevalence of communities that experience systemic racism,
disproportionate impacts of transportation pollution, and
inequitable access to clean transportation.
People in air quality non-attainment:
Number of people living in air quality non-attainment
areas.
Asthma: Number of adults
with asthma, as proxy for the number of people exposed to
poor air quality from transportation sector pollution.
Transport pollution deaths:
Deaths attributed to transportation pollution in a sub-set
of cities and states.
Goods movement hubs: Daily
number of trucks traveling through communities neighboring
freight hubs.
Ports $: The economic
activity generated at ports, as proxy for the economic and
political importance of ports to the nearby communities
and state.
School bus emissions:
Number of children transported by school bus among the
largest 120 school districts in the country.
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Oil Influence: How
influential the state's oil industry is in opposing
electrification policy.
Oil production+: Oil
production, as proxy for oil producer presence and
influence. With the oil opposition toggle set to DIRECT,
states with high levels of oil production rate highly.
Oil refining+: Oil refining
capacity, as proxy for level of oil industry presence and
influence. With the oil opposition toggle set to DIRECT,
states with high levels of oil refining capacity rate
highly.
EV fees+: Size of current
registration fees applied only to electric vehicles or
plug-in hybrid vehicles, as proxy for the level of
influence by opposition groups. With the oil opposition
toggle ON, states with high EV fees rate highly.
Oil opposition group budget+:
Annual budgets of oil-related or oil-funded organizations.
With the oil opposition toggle set to DIRECT, states with
higher opposition budgets rate more highly.
Oil opposition social media+:
Number of social media followers of major oil-related
entities. With the oil opposition toggle set to DIRECT,
states with more oil opposition followers rate more
highly.